Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity

Marc Notes: RR-482-OSD--Cover page 4.; RAND National Defense Research Institute.; Includes bibliographical references (pages 155-171).; Defense analysis can do a better job supporting policymakers dealing with multiple objectives and deep uncertainties. This will involve seeing through the fog with simple analysis and undergirding results with depth as necessary. It will emphasize balancing across objectives and hedging against both uncertainty and disagreement among policymakers. Modern methods for doing so are available but they require displacing some familiar processes and demanding more from analysis. Once decisions are made, analysis should help policymakers explain, convince, and shape implementation guidance with sharpened requirements, forcing functions, and metrics for monitoring, feedback, and adaptation.; The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center by OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.. Brief Description: Defense analysis can do a better job supporting policymakers dealing with multiple objectives and deep uncertainties. This will involve seeing through the fog with simple analysis and undergirding results with depth as necessary. It will emphasize balancing across objectives and hedging against both uncertainty and disagreement among policymakers. Modern methods for doing so are available but they require displacing some familiar processes and demanding more from analysis. Once decisions are made, analysis should help policymakers explain, convince, and shape implementation guidance with sharpened requirements, forcing functions, and metrics for monitoring, feedback, and adaptation. Table of Contents: Preface -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Chapter 1. A Setting of Great National Security Challenges -- Fiscal Constraints Are Only Part of the Problem -- A Pollyannish Perspective on Tight Budgets? -- Endnotes -- Chapter 2. Analysis to Aid Decisionmaking -- Classic Tenets Remain Valid -- Additional Tenets Are Needed -- A New Principle and Implications for the Analysis Profession -- The FARness Principle -- Why FARness Is Neither Common Sense Nor Easily Obtained -- New Professional Responsibilities for Analysts -- Endnotes -- Chapter 3. Concrete Suggestions for Analysis -- The Concept of an Analysis Campaign -- Supporting Policymakers: It Is Not Just Decision-Aiding -- Depth: Balancing the Simple and Complex -- Simplicity's Dominance in More Routine Analysis -- Achieving Valid Simplicity -- Simplicity and Complexity in Historical Studies -- Breadth: Using Diverse Models and Tools -- Recognizing Multiple Criteria -- Multiple Objectives, Including Risk Management -- Uncertainty and Disagreement -- Measuring Qualities of an Option Under Uncertainty -- Exploratory Analysis for Capabilities-Based Planning -- Endnotes -- Chapter 4. Creating Capability Models -- Definitions and Examples -- Definition -- Examples -- Illustrative Simple Models Used in Defense Studies -- Building Capability Models -- Low-Resolution Cap Ability Models -- Motivated Meta Models -- Complex Models That Can Support Capability Analysis -- The Special Issues of Social-Science and Other Soft Considerations -- Models Relating to Terrorism and Insurgency -- Soft Factors in Models Generally -- Myths and Realities About Validation -- Model Validation -- Validity of Human Games, Historical Analysis -- Analysis Validation -- Endnotes -- Chapter 5. Finding Suitable Options -- Challenges in Finding Good Options -- Recurring Issues -- The Perennial Issue: How Much Is Enough? -- Dependence on Assumptions -- Dependence on Concepts of Operations -- Special Implications for a Period of Austerity -- Building-Block and Composite Options -- A New Method for Developing Options -- Endnotes -- Chapter 6. Integrating with Portfolio Analysis -- Portfolio Analysis In Comparison with Other Approaches -- Basic Concepts -- A Simple Illustration -- The Economics of Portfolio Analysis -- Tailoring Portfolio Analysis to Classes of Decision -- Endnotes -- Chapter 7. Conclusions -- Appendix -- A. Subjective Data on Past Studies -- B. Capabilities-Based Planning -- C. Other Approaches to Risk Management -- D. Illustrative Threat-Based Analysis -- E. A Model That Could Have Been Simple -- F. An Example of Simplified Modeling: The Halt Problem -- Bibliography. Publisher Marketing: Defense analysis can improve support of policymakers dealing with multiple objectives and deep uncertainties. Doing so will involve both seeing through the fog with simple analysis and undergirding results with depth as necessary. It will emphasize balancing across objectives and hedging against uncertainty. Modern methods for doing so are available but they require displacement of some familiar processes and analytic expectations.